Value betting is a concept based on the subjectivity of sports betting. In blackjack or roulette, it is very easy to accurately quantify probabilities of all outcomes. In sports betting however, there is a high amount of variables that can affect the final outcome of a match. Bookmakers are usually very good at making probability calculations of an event and setting the odds. They generally have the best information and use the finest methods, but they’re still people like you and this offers you a chance to beat them. It is also important to understand, online bookmakers are always adjusting odds to attract bets in the right proportion to secure a profit, regardless of the outcome. So offered odds often do not represent the actual statistical probability of the event occurring.
Value betting means betting on a match outcome that in your opinion has better probability of winning than suggested by the odds offered by online bookmakers (as odds represent bookmaker’s opinion about the probability of all possible outcomes). So value occurs when a bettor believes the probability of an event occurring is higher than that suggested by the online bookmaker. In terms of odds, he believes that the odds are set at a level where the reward outweighs the risk. Therefore, continuous betting on this type of bets guarantees a safe profit in the long run since their value is higher than their probability.
It is obvious that to make a value betting strategy work and become profitable, you need to excel in making predictions of the probability of a match outcome happening. This is the most difficult part of value betting.
Conventional Betting Versus Value Betting
The conventional way of betting is first finding an object you believe in, then check if the odds are alright. But value betting requires another way of thinking. In fact, value betting is the opposite of conventional betting. It’s not about picking objects, but picking odds. This means that you don’t necessarily have to believe in the player (or a team) you put your money on. As long as the odds presented are better than your mathematical chance your player (or a team) has of winning the game, it’s a value bet.
Some Facts About Value Betting
> Value betting is not betting on the most likely winner or favourite. In most cases the value is on the side of an outsider or higher priced selection as big names are rarely given good prices by online bookmakers.
> Do not think that bigger price means better value! It is all about how the odds compare to the chance of it winning. Even a selection with odds 1.30 or lower can be a value bet.
> The key in successful value betting is setting the right odds. Value betting can sometimes be difficult if you don’t have a very strong knowledge of what you are betting on. It is time consuming to price up lots of different events before the bookmakers do so and if not done properly it can lead to mistakes being made when deciding what is value and what isn’t.