How to Find a Value Bet
Now, after reading our previous article related to value betting, you should already understand the meaning of the value betting term, so we can go a bit deeper now and find out how to find bets that can be considered as valuable. To be capable of finding a value bet you are going to need good knowledge of the sport and league you are betting on and precisely determine all factors that may influence the final outcome.
Undoubtedly, the best technique to find value bets is to price up markets yourself before the market is formed. Then you can compare your own odds to the real market when they are formed and look for the differences. The selections that have higher odds at bookmakers then your own prices represent value in that event for you. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value.
Formula for Finding a Value Bet
You want to price a market for a tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. You give Djokovic a 60% chance to win that match and 40% for Nadal, so these probabilities result in your own odds $1.67 – $2.50 (favour of Djokovic’s). The percentage probability is converted to odds in this way: 100 / 60% = $1.67 for Djokovic, 100 / 40% = $2.50 for Nadal. Now you have to compare these odds with those offered by bookmakers. If your bookmaker offers you odds $1.50 for Djokovic and $2.80 on Nadal, then betting on Nadal represents value bet for you as your fair price is $2.50, meanwhile your bookmaker gives you a chance to back him with odds $2.80.
Slightly different way for finding value bets is using the following formula:
Odds * Percentage / 100
In this formula odds represent odds offered by bookmakers, percentage is your subjective opinion on the chance of winning. If the result of the above calculation is a number greater than 1.0 then the bet is a value bet. On the other hand if it is below 1.0 then it’s not a value bet.
Tennis match between Roger Federer and Andy Roddick is priced as $1.45 – $3.10 by a bookmaker and your subjective opinion about both player’s chances of winning is 75% for Federer, 25% for Roddick. You would like to find out if there is a value bet to be found on any player. So using the formula you have $1.45 * 75 / 100 = 1.0875 for Federer and $3.10 * 25 / 100 = 0.775 for Roddick and that means that there is a value on Federer’s side in your eyes.
The above text and calculations clearly show how important is it to always take the highest available odds on the market. For this reason we recommend you to open an account with Pinnacle Sports, the most professional bookmaker with the lowest margins and the highest odds, if you are not a member yet.